Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
30.83%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Week
30.40%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Month
28.85%
decreased by 3.72%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0224 | 5.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0081 | 0.82 |
| βGARCH | 0.8904 | 107.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.1628 | 7.53*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0224 | 5.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0081 | 0.82 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8904 | 107.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1628 | 7.53*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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