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Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

25.95%

decreased by 1.69%

1 Week

25.55%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Month

24.24%

decreased by 3.40%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2342
7.58***
αARCH0.1076
10.33***
βGARCH0.8604
71.41***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.0817
5.98***
γ2-0.1283
-5.79***
γ30.0707
4.42***
γ4-0.0444
-3.25***
γ50.0428
2.87***
γ6-0.0330
-2.90***

0.968

Persistence

21d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2342
7.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1076
10.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8604
71.41***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.0817
5.98***
γ2-0.1283
-5.79***
γ30.0707
4.42***
γ4-0.0444
-3.25***
γ50.0428
2.87***
γ6-0.0330
-2.90***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days