Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
21.24%
1 Week
19.63%
1 Month
15.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2009 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 88% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0459 | 7.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.2123 | 9.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7617 | 32.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.3584 | 5.50*** |
| δpower | 0.8412 | 4.80*** |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0459 | 7.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2123 | 9.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7617 | 32.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3584 | 5.50*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8412 | 4.80*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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