Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

21.24%

decreased by 3.35%

1 Week

19.63%

decreased by 4.96%

1 Month

15.76%

decreased by 8.83%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2009 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 88% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 88% more than positive returnsδ = 0.84 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0459
7.19***
αARCH0.2123
9.87***
βGARCH0.7617
32.46***
γleverage0.3584
5.50***
δpower0.8412
4.80***

0.929

Persistence

9d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0459
7.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2123
9.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7617
32.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3584
5.50***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8412
4.80***

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days