Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
28.99%
decreased by 3.78%
1 Week
28.39%
decreased by 4.38%
1 Month
26.31%
decreased by 6.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2009 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 278% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 278% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0322 | 6.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.0878 | 2.54** |
| βGARCH | 0.7591 | 32.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.2445 | 5.56*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0322 | 6.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0878 | 2.54** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7591 | 32.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2445 | 5.56*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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