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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

97.83%

decreased by 9.13%

1 Week

97.07%

decreased by 9.89%

1 Month

94.18%

decreased by 12.78%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1996 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 33% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0331
23.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1981
45.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7610
249.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0647
9.21***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days