Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
97.83%
decreased by 9.13%
1 Week
97.07%
decreased by 9.89%
1 Month
94.18%
decreased by 12.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1996 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 33% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0331 | 23.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1981 | 45.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7610 | 249.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0647 | 9.21*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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