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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

47.95%

decreased by 5.14%

1 Week

47.74%

decreased by 5.35%

1 Month

46.92%

decreased by 6.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 38% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0403
30.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2302
51.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7176
234.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0865
11.94***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days