Swiss Market Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
11.70%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
12.01%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
12.94%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 05:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 138% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 138% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0350 | 9.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.1101 | 6.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7776 | 69.46*** |
| γleverage | 0.1516 | 5.94*** |
0.963
Persistence19d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0350 | 9.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1101 | 6.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7776 | 69.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1516 | 5.94*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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