V-Lab
Swiss Market Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.49%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
14.55%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Month
14.73%
decreased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1991 | 5.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.1372 | 11.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8210 | 53.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 0.56 |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1991 | 5.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1372 | 11.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8210 | 53.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
Other Swiss Market Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices