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Swiss Market Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

13.35%

increased by 2.90%

1 Week

13.49%

increased by 3.04%

1 Month

13.93%

increased by 3.48%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Swiss Market Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1937
8.01***
αARCH0.1371
11.73***
βGARCH0.8209
52.67***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0004
1.79*

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1937
8.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1371
11.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8209
52.67***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0004
1.79*

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days