Swiss Market Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
12.83%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
13.12%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Month
14.01%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 05:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0351 | 2.27** |
| αARCH | 0.2304 | 10.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7391 | 57.71*** |
0.970
Persistence22d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0351 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2304 | 10.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7391 | 57.71*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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