IBEX 35 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.16%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Week
16.54%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
17.74%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 04:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0604 | 0.69 |
| αARCH | 0.2374 | 3.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7294 | 63.11*** |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0604 | 0.69 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2374 | 3.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7294 | 63.11*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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