IBEX 35 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
14.75%
increased by 0.44%
1 Week
15.27%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
16.82%
increased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0604 | 0.69 |
| αARCH | 0.2374 | 3.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7294 | 63.10*** |
0.967
Persistence20d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0604 | 0.69 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2374 | 3.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7294 | 63.10*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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