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V-Lab

IBEX 35 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

19.85%

increased by 0.94%

1 Week

19.94%

increased by 1.03%

1 Month

20.27%

increased by 1.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 348% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.26 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 348% more than positive returnsδ = 1.26 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0361
8.05***
αARCH0.0858
6.26***
βGARCH0.9021
93.56***
γleverage0.5348
5.09***
δpower1.2556
9.64***

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0361
8.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0858
6.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9021
93.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5348
5.09***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2556
9.64***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days