IBEX 35 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
19.85%
1 Week
19.94%
1 Month
20.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 348% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.26 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0361 | 8.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0858 | 6.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9021 | 93.56*** |
| γleverage | 0.5348 | 5.09*** |
| δpower | 1.2556 | 9.64*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0361 | 8.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 6.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9021 | 93.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5348 | 5.09*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2556 | 9.64*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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