V-Lab
MSCI Asia Pacific APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.56%
1 Week
16.69%
1 Month
17.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 232% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0227 | 7.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0886 | 10.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9098 | 115.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.4846 | 7.61*** |
| δpower | 1.1330 | 9.37*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0227 | 7.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0886 | 10.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9098 | 115.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4846 | 7.61*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1330 | 9.37*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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