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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.56%

increased by 0.12%

1 Week

16.69%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

17.13%

increased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 232% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 232% more than positive returnsδ = 1.13 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0227
7.57***
αARCH0.0886
10.79***
βGARCH0.9098
115.78***
γleverage0.4846
7.61***
δpower1.1330
9.37***

0.983

Persistence

40d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0227
7.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0886
10.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9098
115.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4846
7.61***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1330
9.37***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days