MSCI Asia Pacific APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
22.95%
1 Week
22.86%
1 Month
22.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 231% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0228 | 7.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0887 | 10.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9096 | 115.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.4835 | 7.60*** |
| δpower | 1.1356 | 9.38*** |
0.983
Persistence39d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0228 | 7.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0887 | 10.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9096 | 115.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4835 | 7.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1356 | 9.38*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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