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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

23.18%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Week

23.05%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Month

22.58%

decreased by 1.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Mar 19, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 286% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0243
25.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
17.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8907
443.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1086
19.15***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days