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MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

25.47%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

25.28%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Month

24.59%

decreased by 1.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 5, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 290% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 290% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0243
6.44***
αARCH0.0376
4.39***
βGARCH0.8910
112.76***
γleverage0.1090
4.91***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0243
6.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0376
4.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8910
112.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1090
4.91***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days