V-Lab
MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
14.03%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
14.22%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
14.90%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 291% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 291% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0242 | 6.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0376 | 4.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8909 | 112.59*** |
| γleverage | 0.1092 | 4.90*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0242 | 6.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0376 | 4.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8909 | 112.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1092 | 4.90*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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