MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
25.47%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
25.28%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Month
24.59%
decreased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 5, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 290% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 290% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0243 | 6.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.0376 | 4.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8910 | 112.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.1090 | 4.91*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0243 | 6.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0376 | 4.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8910 | 112.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1090 | 4.91*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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