MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
23.06%
increased by 1.78%
1 Week
22.94%
increased by 1.66%
1 Month
22.50%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 292% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 292% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0243 | 6.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0375 | 4.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8910 | 112.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.1095 | 4.92*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0243 | 6.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0375 | 4.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8910 | 112.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1095 | 4.92*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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