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MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.03%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

14.22%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

14.90%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 291% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 291% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0242
6.42***
αARCH0.0376
4.39***
βGARCH0.8909
112.59***
γleverage0.1092
4.90***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0242
6.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0376
4.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8909
112.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1092
4.90***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days