V-Lab
MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.25%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
16.35%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
16.70%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 291% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 291% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0242 | 6.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.0375 | 4.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8911 | 112.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.1092 | 4.91*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0242 | 6.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0375 | 4.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8911 | 112.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1092 | 4.91*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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