MSCI Asia Pacific GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.18%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
23.05%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
22.58%
decreased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 286% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0243 | 25.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0380 | 17.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8907 | 443.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1086 | 19.15*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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