Russell 1000 Value Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.85%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
11.15%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
12.12%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0239 | 19.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0033 | 1.31 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8868 | 392.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1746 | 30.62*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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