Russell 1000 Value Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
9.10%
increased by 0.82%
1 Week
9.53%
increased by 1.25%
1 Month
10.88%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0236 | 4.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0036 | 0.36 |
| βGARCH | 0.8871 | 98.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.1736 | 7.67*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0236 | 4.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0036 | 0.36 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8871 | 98.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1736 | 7.67*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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