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V-Lab

Russell 1000 Value Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

11.91%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

12.24%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

13.34%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Value Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0414
7.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1158
9.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8618
69.60***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0017
1.28

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days