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V-Lab
V-Lab

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

16.98%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

17.41%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

18.88%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:13 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 52 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2754
6.15***
αARCH0.0711
9.10***
βGARCH0.9157
109.39***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0018
2.19**

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2754
6.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0711
9.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9157
109.39***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0018
2.19**

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days