V-Lab
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
16.98%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
17.41%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
18.88%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 52 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2754 | 6.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0711 | 9.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9157 | 109.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 2.19** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2754 | 6.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0711 | 9.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9157 | 109.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 2.19** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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