Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.80%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
13.05%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
15.42%
increased by 3.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0824 | 4.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1487 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7499 | 17.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0640 | -0.65 |
| γ2 | 0.2609 | 1.72* |
| γ3 | -0.3783 | -2.82*** |
| γ4 | 0.3624 | 2.43** |
| γ5 | -0.3967 | -2.69*** |
| γ6 | 0.4567 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
6 days
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