V-Lab
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.17%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
14.76%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Month
13.81%
decreased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1138 | 4.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.1451 | 5.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7542 | 17.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0272 | -0.29 |
| γ2 | 0.1907 | 1.34 |
| γ3 | -0.3128 | -2.61*** |
| γ4 | 0.2926 | 2.08** |
| γ5 | -0.3196 | -2.22** |
| γ6 | 0.3055 | 1.67* |
0.899
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1138 | 4.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1451 | 5.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7542 | 17.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0272 | -0.29 |
| γ2 | 0.1907 | 1.34 |
| γ3 | -0.3128 | -2.61*** |
| γ4 | 0.2926 | 2.08** |
| γ5 | -0.3196 | -2.22** |
| γ6 | 0.3055 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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