Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
12.21%
increased by 0.61%
1 Week
12.23%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
12.30%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Nov 5, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0443 | 2.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.1388 | 2.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8052 | 19.07*** |
| γleverage | -0.0330 | -0.44 |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0443 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1388 | 2.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8052 | 19.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0330 | -0.44 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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