Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.61%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
16.10%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
14.72%
decreased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0445 | 2.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.1400 | 2.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8041 | 18.79*** |
| γleverage | -0.0347 | -0.46 |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0445 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1400 | 2.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8041 | 18.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0347 | -0.46 |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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