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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.90%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

15.24%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

13.97%

decreased by 1.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2011 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 83% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 83% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.1780
4.63***
βGARCH0.7202
14.97***
γleverage-0.0808
-1.96**
λ₁tau intercept0.2419
2.06**
λ₂forecast adj.0.5631
2.37**
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.858

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1780
4.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7202
14.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0808
-1.96**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2419
2.06**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5631
2.37**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.858

Half-life:

5 days