S&P BSE SENSEX Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12.61%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
12.70%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
12.97%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1554 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0914 | 9.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8789 | 72.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1464 | -3.01*** |
| γ2 | 0.2802 | 3.87*** |
| γ3 | -0.2740 | -5.58*** |
| γ4 | 0.2681 | 5.53*** |
| γ5 | -0.2148 | -4.67*** |
| γ6 | 0.1089 | 2.64*** |
| γ7 | -0.0010 | -0.02 |
| γ8 | -0.0388 | -0.72 |
| γ9 | 0.0278 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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