Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
14.61%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
14.63%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
14.68%
decreased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 12:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0806 | 3.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.1446 | 8.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7948 | 36.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1014 | 2.73*** |
| γ2 | -0.1805 | -3.60*** |
| γ3 | 0.1318 | 5.05*** |
| γ4 | -0.0895 | -4.41*** |
| γ5 | 0.0504 | 2.83*** |
| γ6 | -0.0070 | -0.40 |
| γ7 | -0.0300 | -0.96 |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0806 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1446 | 8.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7948 | 36.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1014 | 2.73*** |
| γ2 | -0.1805 | -3.60*** |
| γ3 | 0.1318 | 5.05*** |
| γ4 | -0.0895 | -4.41*** |
| γ5 | 0.0504 | 2.83*** |
| γ6 | -0.0070 | -0.40 |
| γ7 | -0.0300 | -0.96 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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