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V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

13.16%

increased by 0.70%

1 Week

13.18%

increased by 0.72%

1 Month

13.26%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0818
3.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1435
8.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7962
37.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.1035
2.74***
γ2-0.1834
-3.60***
γ30.1320
4.98***
γ4-0.0868
-4.26***
γ50.0446
2.53**
γ60.0026
0.15
γ7-0.0501
-1.47

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days