Skip to main content
V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

21.10%

increased by 2.26%

1 Week

21.23%

increased by 2.39%

1 Month

21.72%

increased by 2.88%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4249
9.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1062
47.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9820
504.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6953
14.16***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days