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Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

14.22%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

14.72%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

16.35%

increased by 1.15%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 05:48 PM UTC

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graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 5.72 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.4008
2.45**
αARCH0.1059
11.96***
βGARCH0.9819
126.67***
νDF5.7224
3.52***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4008
2.45**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1059
11.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9819
126.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7224
3.52***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days