V-Lab
Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.51%
increased by 0.81%
1 Week
16.86%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
18.07%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 5.72 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4078 | 2.45** |
| αARCH | 0.1060 | 11.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9820 | 126.49*** |
| νDF | 5.7175 | 3.52*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4078 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1060 | 11.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9820 | 126.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7175 | 3.52*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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