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Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026

1 Day

22.75%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

22.81%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

23.03%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/10/2024

to

11/10/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-lifev = 6.18 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.4522
2.64***
αscore0.1115
11.83***
βpersistence0.9812
131.83***
νDF6.1850
3.10***

0.981

Persistence

37d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.4522
2.64***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1115
11.83***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9812
131.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1850
3.10***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days