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V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

15.92%

increased by 1.39%

1 Week

16.31%

increased by 1.78%

1 Month

17.63%

increased by 3.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4181
9.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1063
47.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9820
504.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7067
14.13***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days