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Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.51%

increased by 0.81%

1 Week

16.86%

increased by 1.16%

1 Month

18.07%

increased by 2.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 5.72 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.4078
2.45**
αARCH0.1060
11.97***
βGARCH0.9820
126.49***
νDF5.7175
3.52***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4078
2.45**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1060
11.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9820
126.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7175
3.52***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days