Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026
1 Day
22.75%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
22.81%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
23.03%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-lifev = 6.18 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.4522 | 2.64*** |
| αscore | 0.1115 | 11.83*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9812 | 131.83*** |
| νDF | 6.1850 | 3.10*** |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.4522 | 2.64*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1115 | 11.83*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9812 | 131.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1850 | 3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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