Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
21.10%
increased by 2.26%
1 Week
21.23%
increased by 2.39%
1 Month
21.72%
increased by 2.88%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4249 | 9.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1062 | 47.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9820 | 504.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6953 | 14.16*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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