Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CAC 40 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

15.43%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

15.59%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

16.18%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 53-day half-lifev = 8.18 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.7352
2.13**
αscore0.0814
8.95***
βpersistence0.9871
145.46***
νDF8.1754
1.52

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.7352
2.13**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0814
8.95***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9871
145.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1754
1.52

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days