Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CAC 40 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

13.44%

increased by 0.20%

1 Week

13.68%

increased by 0.44%

1 Month

14.54%

increased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 53-day half-lifev = 8.09 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7384
2.11**
αARCH0.0815
8.95***
βGARCH0.9870
144.05***
νDF8.0869
1.55

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7384
2.11**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0815
8.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9870
144.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0869
1.55

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days