Skip to main content
V-Lab

CAC 40 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.57%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

12.86%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

13.86%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7498
8.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0818
35.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9870
578.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1365
6.14***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days