V-Lab
CAC 40 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
12.19%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
12.49%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
13.53%
increased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 53-day half-lifev = 8.09 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7361 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.0814 | 8.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9871 | 144.29*** |
| νDF | 8.0900 | 1.55 |
0.987
Persistence53d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7361 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0814 | 8.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9871 | 144.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0900 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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