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CAC 40 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

14.18%

increased by 0.89%

1 Week

14.39%

increased by 1.10%

1 Month

15.14%

increased by 1.85%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 53-day half-lifev = 8.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7330
2.12**
αARCH0.0813
8.96***
βGARCH0.9871
144.75***
νDF8.1073
1.54

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7330
2.12**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0813
8.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9871
144.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1073
1.54

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days