CAC 40 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
13.83%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
14.24%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
15.60%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0411 | 2.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.2157 | 13.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7615 | 70.32*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0411 | 2.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2157 | 13.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7615 | 70.32*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
Other MEM Analyses on Equity Indices