V-Lab
S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
33.22%
increased by 4.86%
1 Week
33.59%
increased by 5.23%
1 Month
34.85%
increased by 6.49%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1550 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.2107 | 9.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7655 | 63.17*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1550 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2107 | 9.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7655 | 63.17*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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