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S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

33.22%

increased by 4.86%

1 Week

33.59%

increased by 5.23%

1 Month

34.85%

increased by 6.49%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1550
2.11**
αARCH0.2107
9.91***
βGARCH0.7655
63.17***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1550
2.11**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2107
9.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7655
63.17***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days