V-Lab
CAC 40 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
14.77%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
14.99%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
15.73%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1446 | 9.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1001 | 10.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8772 | 81.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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