V-Lab
CAC 40 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.03%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
11.51%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
13.02%
increased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1484 | 9.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1001 | 10.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8772 | 81.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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