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V-Lab

CAC 40 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

14.77%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

14.99%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

15.73%

increased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CAC 40 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1446
9.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1001
10.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8772
81.15***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
1.67*

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days