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V-Lab

FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

10.88%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

11.08%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

11.77%

increased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 8.89 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0644
2.48**
αARCH0.0876
8.56***
βGARCH0.9852
153.82***
νDF8.8910
1.37

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0644
2.48**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0876
8.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9852
153.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8910
1.37

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days