FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
11.75%
increased by 0.32%
1 Week
11.90%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
12.46%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-lifev = 8.97 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.0622 | 2.49** |
| αscore | 0.0870 | 8.58*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9854 | 156.33*** |
| νDF | 8.9705 | 1.36 |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.0622 | 2.49** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0870 | 8.58*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9854 | 156.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9705 | 1.36 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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