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FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026

1 Day

11.75%

increased by 0.32%

1 Week

11.90%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

12.46%

increased by 1.03%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/27/2024

to

10/27/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-lifev = 8.97 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.0622
2.49**
αscore0.0870
8.58***
βpersistence0.9854
156.33***
νDF8.9705
1.36

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.0622
2.49**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0870
8.58***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9854
156.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9705
1.36

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days