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FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

12.95%

increased by 0.89%

1 Week

13.07%

increased by 1.01%

1 Month

13.47%

increased by 1.41%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 8.90 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0640
2.48**
αARCH0.0876
8.57***
βGARCH0.9852
154.08***
νDF8.8987
1.37

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0640
2.48**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0876
8.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9852
154.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8987
1.37

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days