V-Lab
FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
8.61%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
8.93%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
10.01%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-lifev = 8.93 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0680 | 2.46** |
| αARCH | 0.0879 | 8.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9854 | 155.28*** |
| νDF | 8.9307 | 1.37 |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0680 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0879 | 8.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9854 | 155.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9307 | 1.37 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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