V-Lab
FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.59%
increased by 0.56%
1 Week
12.72%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
13.17%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0690 | 10.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0877 | 34.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9851 | 620.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9625 | 5.44*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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