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FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

10.56%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

10.77%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Month

11.52%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

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graph of FTSE 100 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-lifev = 8.91 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0647
2.48**
αARCH0.0878
8.57***
βGARCH0.9852
154.30***
νDF8.9142
1.37

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0647
2.48**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0878
8.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9852
154.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9142
1.37

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days