V-Lab
Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
15.01%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
15.18%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
15.79%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9923 | 6.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0774 | 37.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9908 | 578.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6938 | 6.63*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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