V-Lab
Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.64%
1 Week
13.85%
1 Month
14.61%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9827 | 1.52 |
| αARCH | 0.0776 | 9.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9908 | 144.36*** |
| νDF | 7.7010 | 1.66* |
0.991
Persistence75d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9827 | 1.52 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 9.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9908 | 144.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7010 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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