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Nikkei 225 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

25.53%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

25.48%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Month

25.31%

decreased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 7.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.2817
2.69***
αscore0.0828
9.91***
βpersistence0.9832
139.88***
νDF7.5797
1.71*

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.2817
2.69***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0828
9.91***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9832
139.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5797
1.71*

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days