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V-Lab

Nikkei 225 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

37.85%

increased by 3.34%

1 Week

37.48%

increased by 2.97%

1 Month

36.11%

increased by 1.60%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2893
10.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0833
40.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9833
564.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6065
6.90***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days