Nikkei 225 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
25.53%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
25.48%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
25.31%
decreased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 7.58 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.2817 | 2.69*** |
| αscore | 0.0828 | 9.91*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9832 | 139.88*** |
| νDF | 7.5797 | 1.71* |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.2817 | 2.69*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0828 | 9.91*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9832 | 139.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5797 | 1.71* |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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