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V-Lab

Nikkei 225 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026

1 Day

25.81%

decreased by 1.36%

1 Week

25.75%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Month

25.54%

decreased by 1.63%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2788
10.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0831
40.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9832
564.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6095
6.87***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days