V-Lab
Nikkei 225 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
37.85%
increased by 3.34%
1 Week
37.48%
increased by 2.97%
1 Month
36.11%
increased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2893 | 10.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0833 | 40.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9833 | 564.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6065 | 6.90*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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