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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 3rd, 2026

1 Day

14.00%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

14.31%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

15.39%

increased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 4.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0175
1.06
αARCH0.1265
10.65***
βGARCH0.9857
76.04***
νDF4.3328
4.14***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0175
1.06
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1265
10.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9857
76.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3328
4.14***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days