V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, September 5th, 2026
1 Day
11.68%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
12.12%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
13.61%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Sep 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 4.32 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0341 | 1.06 |
| αARCH | 0.1268 | 10.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9858 | 76.34*** |
| νDF | 4.3236 | 4.19*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0341 | 1.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1268 | 10.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9858 | 76.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3236 | 4.19*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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