Skip to main content
V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, July 18th, 2026

1 Day

9.20%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

9.83%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

11.83%

increased by 1.89%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 15, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0533
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1269
43.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9861
309.98***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3325
16.84***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days