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Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, November 14th, 2026

1 Day

16.62%

decreased by 1.94%

1 Week

16.81%

decreased by 1.75%

1 Month

17.47%

decreased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Nov 12, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with ν = 4.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifeν = 4.45 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.0502
1.09
αscore0.1282
10.86***
βpersistence0.9860
79.72***
νDF4.4487
4.04***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.0502
1.09
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1282
10.86***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9860
79.72***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4487
4.04***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days