V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, July 25th, 2026
1 Day
9.52%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
10.12%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
12.04%
increased by 2.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0578 | 4.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1269 | 43.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9862 | 311.38*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3320 | 16.90*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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