V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 3rd, 2026
1 Day
14.00%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
14.31%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
15.39%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 4.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0175 | 1.06 |
| αARCH | 0.1265 | 10.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9857 | 76.04*** |
| νDF | 4.3328 | 4.14*** |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0175 | 1.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1265 | 10.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9857 | 76.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3328 | 4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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