Skip to main content
V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, July 25th, 2026

1 Day

9.52%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

10.12%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

12.04%

increased by 2.16%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0578
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1269
43.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9862
311.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3320
16.90***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days