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Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 24th, 2026

1 Day

21.95%

increased by 4.27%

1 Week

21.97%

increased by 4.29%

1 Month

22.02%

increased by 4.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 05:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 4.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.0609
1.08
αscore0.1284
10.89***
βpersistence0.9861
79.94***
νDF4.4450
4.07***

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.0609
1.08
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1284
10.89***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9861
79.94***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4450
4.07***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days