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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 15th, 2026

1 Day

9.97%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

10.54%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

12.38%

increased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0472
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1274
43.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9859
306.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3234
16.84***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days