Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 24th, 2026
1 Day
21.95%
increased by 4.27%
1 Week
21.97%
increased by 4.29%
1 Month
22.02%
increased by 4.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 05:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 4.44 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.0609 | 1.08 |
| αscore | 0.1284 | 10.89*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9861 | 79.94*** |
| νDF | 4.4450 | 4.07*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.0609 | 1.08 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1284 | 10.89*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9861 | 79.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4450 | 4.07*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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