V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 15th, 2026
1 Day
9.97%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
10.54%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
12.38%
increased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0472 | 4.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1274 | 43.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9859 | 306.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3234 | 16.84*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
Other Tadawul All Share TASI Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices