Skip to main content
V-Lab

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

22.43%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

22.45%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

22.51%

decreased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1881
6.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0557
39.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9924
741.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0571
5.92***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days