V-Lab
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
19.63%
1 Week
19.70%
1 Month
19.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 156 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8461 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.0513 | 11.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9956 | 296.74*** |
| νDF | 4.7793 | 3.64*** |
0.996
Persistence156d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8461 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0513 | 11.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 296.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7793 | 3.64*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
156 days
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