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V-Lab

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

19.63%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

19.70%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Month

19.99%

decreased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

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2Y ·

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graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 156 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~156 daysv = 4.78 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8461
1.17
αARCH0.0513
11.86***
βGARCH0.9956
296.74***
νDF4.7793
3.64***

0.996

Persistence

156d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8461
1.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0513
11.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9956
296.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7793
3.64***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

156 days