Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
25.22%
1 Week
25.29%
1 Month
25.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 136 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.78 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0177 | 12.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0714 | 22.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9286 | 339.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0307 | 1.86* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7796 | 31.67*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
136 days
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