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V-Lab

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

25.22%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Week

25.29%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Month

25.58%

decreased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 136 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.78 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0177
12.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0714
22.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9286
339.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0307
1.86*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7796
31.67***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

136 days