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V-Lab

Swiss Market Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

10.59%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

11.14%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

12.83%

increased by 1.63%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Swiss Market Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0470
26.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1078
39.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8695
306.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6916
29.04***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0320
37.16***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

16 days