V-Lab
Swiss Market Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10.59%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
11.14%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
12.83%
increased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0470 | 26.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1078 | 39.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8695 | 306.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6916 | 29.04*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0320 | 37.16*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices