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V-Lab

S&P BSE SENSEX Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

11.04%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

11.35%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

12.51%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1942561 trading days (~7708.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 73% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1942561 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 73% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0137
4.65***
αARCH0.0882
7.82***
βGARCH0.9110
111.25***
γleverage0.1382
3.06***
δpower1.9727
8.52***

1.000

Persistence

1942561d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0137
4.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0882
7.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9110
111.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1382
3.06***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9727
8.52***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1942561 days