V-Lab
S&P BSE SENSEX Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
11.04%
1 Week
11.35%
1 Month
12.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1942561 trading days (~7708.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 73% more than positive returns
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0137 | 4.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0882 | 7.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9110 | 111.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.1382 | 3.06*** |
| δpower | 1.9727 | 8.52*** |
1.000
Persistence1942561d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0137 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0882 | 7.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9110 | 111.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1382 | 3.06*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9727 | 8.52*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1942561 days
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