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V-Lab

S&P BSE SENSEX Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

17.27%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

17.44%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

18.08%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 738 trading days (~2.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~738 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0126
4.19***
αARCH0.0857
9.45***
βGARCH0.9133
107.21***

0.999

Persistence

738d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0126
4.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0857
9.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9133
107.21***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

738 days