S&P BSE SENSEX Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
17.27%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
17.44%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
18.08%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 738 trading days (~2.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~738 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0126 | 4.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0857 | 9.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9133 | 107.21*** |
0.999
Persistence738d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0126 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0857 | 9.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9133 | 107.21*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
738 days
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