V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
50.00%
1 Week
49.85%
1 Month
49.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 154 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.1914 | 1.42 |
| αARCH | 0.0752 | 13.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9955 | 336.55*** |
| νDF | 7.1486 | 2.41** |
0.996
Persistence154d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1914 | 1.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0752 | 13.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 336.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1486 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
154 days
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