Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
53.39%
1 Week
53.23%
1 Month
52.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 157 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.3516 | 1.44 |
| αscore | 0.0786 | 13.23*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9956 | 345.21*** |
| νDF | 7.5162 | 2.28** |
0.996
Persistence157d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.3516 | 1.44 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0786 | 13.23*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 345.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5162 | 2.28** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
157 days
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