V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
80.04%
increased by 3.12%
1 Week
79.74%
increased by 2.82%
1 Month
78.55%
increased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2391 | 5.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0747 | 52.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 1,418.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1951 | 9.63*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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