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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

73.89%

decreased by 2.75%

1 Week

73.62%

decreased by 3.02%

1 Month

72.55%

decreased by 4.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2443
5.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0747
52.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9957
1,416.31***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1538
9.75***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

160 days