V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
73.89%
decreased by 2.75%
1 Week
73.62%
decreased by 3.02%
1 Month
72.55%
decreased by 4.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2443 | 5.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0747 | 52.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 1,416.31*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1538 | 9.75*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
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