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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

33.12%

increased by 1.82%

1 Week

33.08%

increased by 1.78%

1 Month

32.91%

increased by 1.61%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~148 daysv = 7.16 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.1468
1.41
αARCH0.0761
12.82***
βGARCH0.9953
319.63***
νDF7.1585
2.37**

0.995

Persistence

148d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1468
1.41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0761
12.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9953
319.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1585
2.37**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

148 days