V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
26,673.88%
decreased by 3,006.39%
1 Week
26,647.22%
decreased by 3,033.05%
1 Month
26,541.03%
decreased by 3,139.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 8.0246 | 3.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.0993 | 23.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 3,352.35*** |
| νDF | 2.0000 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.0246 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 23.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 3,352.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0000 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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