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Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

26,673.88%

decreased by 3,006.39%

1 Week

26,647.22%

decreased by 3,033.05%

1 Month

26,541.03%

decreased by 3,139.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC

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graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst8.0246
3.20***
αARCH0.0993
23.60***
βGARCH0.9990
3,352.35***
νDF2.0000

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.0246
3.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0993
23.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
3,352.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0000

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days