Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
25.42%
1 Week
25.67%
1 Month
26.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 28.8397 | 0.41 |
| αscore | 0.0877 | 15.80*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9990 | 398.48*** |
| νDF | 9.9998 | 1.59 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 28.8397 | 0.41 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0877 | 15.80*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 398.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.9998 | 1.59 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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