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V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

79,358.25%

decreased by 9,236.34%

1 Week

79,278.92%

decreased by 9,315.67%

1 Month

78,962.97%

decreased by 9,631.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.0779
2.13**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0818
8.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,973.21***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0000

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days