V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
79,358.25%
decreased by 9,236.34%
1 Week
79,278.92%
decreased by 9,315.67%
1 Month
78,962.97%
decreased by 9,631.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.0779 | 2.13** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0818 | 8.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,973.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0000 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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