V-Lab
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
13,517.66%
decreased by 605.13%
1 Week
13,504.15%
decreased by 618.64%
1 Month
13,450.33%
decreased by 672.46%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 09:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 21, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.0684 | 0.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0933 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 720.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0000 | 2,713.71*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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