V-Lab
FTSE 100 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.46%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
10.81%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
11.92%
increased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.56) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 0.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0828 | 47.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8904 | 459.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5635 | 27.33*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
Other FTSE 100 Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices