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V-Lab

NASDAQ Composite Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

16.55%

increased by 0.28%

1 Week

16.85%

increased by 0.58%

1 Month

17.89%

increased by 1.62%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.55) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0140
1.64
αARCH0.1010
12.07***
βGARCH0.8773
98.53***
γleverage0.5499
5.69***

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0140
1.64
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1010
12.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8773
98.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5499
5.69***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days