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V-Lab

Dow Jones Industrial Average AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

11.70%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

12.06%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

13.16%

increased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.60) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0993
41.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8676
332.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5984
35.84***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days