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V-Lab

Dow Jones Industrial Average AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

15.34%

increased by 0.81%

1 Week

15.41%

increased by 0.88%

1 Month

15.65%

increased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 12:12 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.60) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0992
10.49***
βGARCH0.8677
83.44***
γleverage0.5990
8.99***

0.967

Persistence

21d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0992
10.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8677
83.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5990
8.99***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days