Dow Jones Industrial Average AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
11.70%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
12.06%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
13.16%
increased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.60) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 41.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8676 | 332.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5984 | 35.84*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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