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V-Lab

Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.85%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Week

15.51%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

17.60%

increased by 1.85%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.23) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0536
21.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1499
44.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8268
213.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2263
16.19***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days