Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
14.98%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
15.63%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
17.67%
increased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.22) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0535 | 5.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.1501 | 11.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8265 | 53.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.2245 | 4.04*** |
0.977
Persistence29d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0535 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1501 | 11.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8265 | 53.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2245 | 4.04*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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