Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
27.75%
decreased by 2.38%
1 Week
28.10%
decreased by 2.03%
1 Month
29.34%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1998 to Jun 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0776 | 13.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2717 | 16.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6514 | 76.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1285 | 4.75*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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