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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

16.87%

increased by 0.37%

1 Week

16.98%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

17.37%

increased by 0.87%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 16, 2000 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 50% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0261
6.22***
αARCH0.1087
8.03***
βGARCH0.8476
83.76***
γleverage0.0545
2.26**

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0261
6.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1087
8.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8476
83.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0545
2.26**

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days