V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.87%
increased by 0.37%
1 Week
16.98%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
17.37%
increased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2000 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 50% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0261 | 6.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.1087 | 8.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8476 | 83.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.0545 | 2.26** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0261 | 6.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1087 | 8.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8476 | 83.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0545 | 2.26** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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