V-Lab
Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.37%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
17.05%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
19.12%
increased by 2.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0767 | 21.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 26.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8213 | 168.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0825 | 7.13*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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