V-Lab
Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
15.50%
increased by 0.18%
1 Week
16.25%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
18.54%
increased by 3.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0763 | 5.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.1081 | 6.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8217 | 42.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.0827 | 1.79* |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0763 | 5.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1081 | 6.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8217 | 42.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0827 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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