Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
22.28%
increased by 4.64%
1 Week
22.49%
increased by 4.85%
1 Month
23.20%
increased by 5.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0771 | 5.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.1081 | 6.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8208 | 42.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.0840 | 1.82* |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0771 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1081 | 6.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8208 | 42.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0840 | 1.82* |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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