V-Lab
Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
14.49%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
15.35%
increased by 1.94%
1 Month
17.92%
increased by 4.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0766 | 21.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1085 | 26.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8213 | 169.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0827 | 7.15*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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