Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
18.94%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
19.39%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
20.84%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0768 | 21.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1087 | 26.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8212 | 168.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0825 | 7.12*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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