Skip to main content
V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

18.94%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

19.39%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

20.84%

increased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 76% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0768
21.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1087
26.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8212
168.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0825
7.12***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days