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V-Lab

Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

15.50%

increased by 0.18%

1 Week

16.25%

increased by 0.93%

1 Month

18.54%

increased by 3.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Budapest Stock Exchange Budapest Stock Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1991 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0763
5.33***
αARCH0.1081
6.53***
βGARCH0.8217
42.37***
γleverage0.0827
1.79*

0.971

Persistence

24d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0763
5.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1081
6.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8217
42.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0827
1.79*

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days