V-Lab
Russell Midcap Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.13%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
11.79%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
13.75%
increased by 2.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5086 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1182 | 9.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8535 | 61.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0455 | -3.64*** |
| γ2 | 0.0657 | 3.44*** |
| γ3 | -0.0264 | -1.51 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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