Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
1 Day
29.01%
increased by 4.41%
1 Week
28.93%
increased by 4.33%
1 Month
28.65%
increased by 4.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3506 | 7.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0845 | 9.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8952 | 88.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0024 | -1.50 |
| γ2 | 0.0087 | 3.03*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3506 | 7.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0845 | 9.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8952 | 88.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0024 | -1.50 |
| γ2 | 0.0087 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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