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V-Lab

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

30.99%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Week

31.49%

decreased by 1.28%

1 Month

31.87%

decreased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 07:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0022
0.68
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7502
106.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2045
40.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0105
2.54**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0626
4.69***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9326
63.37***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days