V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
19.15%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
20.23%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
21.43%
increased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0015 | 0.14 |
| βGARCH | 0.7502 | 36.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.2060 | 10.45*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0114 | 2.62*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0647 | 4.98*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9300 | 66.81*** |
0.855
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0015 | 0.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7502 | 36.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2060 | 10.45*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0114 | 2.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0647 | 4.98*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9300 | 66.81*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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