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Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

19.15%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

20.23%

increased by 0.69%

1 Month

21.43%

increased by 1.89%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0015
0.14
βGARCH0.7502
36.04***
γleverage0.2060
10.45***
λ₁tau intercept0.0114
2.62***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0647
4.98***
λ₃tau persistence0.9300
66.81***

0.855

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0015
0.14
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7502
36.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2060
10.45***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0114
2.62***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0647
4.98***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9300
66.81***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days