V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
48.15%
decreased by 4.94%
1 Week
45.58%
decreased by 7.51%
1 Month
41.32%
decreased by 11.77%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0016 | 0.51 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7508 | 105.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2039 | 40.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 2.49** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0632 | 4.64*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9322 | 62.30*** |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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