Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
30.99%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Week
31.49%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
31.87%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 07:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0022 | 0.68 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7502 | 106.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2045 | 40.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0105 | 2.54** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0626 | 4.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9326 | 63.37*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
Other Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices