V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.48%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
25.31%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
26.17%
increased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0019 | 0.18 |
| βGARCH | 0.7509 | 36.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.2053 | 10.40*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0104 | 2.55** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0614 | 5.07*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9338 | 71.99*** |
0.855
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0019 | 0.18 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7509 | 36.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2053 | 10.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 2.55** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0614 | 5.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9338 | 71.99*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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