V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
31.14%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
33.08%
increased by 1.18%
1 Month
34.46%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0012 | 0.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7498 | 106.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2057 | 41.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 2.50** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0631 | 4.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9323 | 62.62*** |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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