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Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

42.03%

increased by 0.83%

1 Week

42.01%

increased by 0.81%

1 Month

41.93%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 389 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~389 daysv = 6.09 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.1193
1.64
αscore0.0602
18.79***
βpersistence0.9982
1,109.13***
νDF6.0869
4.24***

0.998

Persistence

389d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.1193
1.64
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0602
18.79***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9982
1,109.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0869
4.24***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

389 days