Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
42.03%
1 Week
42.01%
1 Month
41.93%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 389 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.1193 | 1.64 |
| αscore | 0.0602 | 18.79*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9982 | 1,109.13*** |
| νDF | 6.0869 | 4.24*** |
0.998
Persistence389d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.1193 | 1.64 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0602 | 18.79*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 1,109.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0869 | 4.24*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
389 days
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