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V-Lab

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

29.87%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Week

29.88%

decreased by 1.37%

1 Month

29.91%

decreased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 297 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9449
6.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0569
72.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9977
3,271.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7377
18.23***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

297 days