Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.87%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Week
29.88%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
29.91%
decreased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 297 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9449 | 6.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0569 | 72.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 3,271.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7377 | 18.23*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
297 days
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